Elenabad Bypoll’s result shows that the BJP’s non-Jat coalition is intact; What this means for the bustle of the farm

October 29, Swarajya called the Elenabad poll insignificant, saying the election didn’t matter because the outcome was already certain.

“No one should be surprised with the November 2 outcome,” the article read, adding, “the only thing to watch out for is how intact the BJP’s non-Jat coalition is still. and Congress have aligned Jat candidates and Sikhs in the region will support one or the other due to agricultural laws, the number of votes obtained by the BJP (mostly non Jats, non Sikhs) will be revealing the impact of farmer unrest on caste lines. ”

While it would still not be wise to draw greater lessons from the result, Abhay Chautala’s reduced margin of victory is indeed surprising for several reasons:

First of all, it is the strongest electoral fortress of the Chautala family. Abhay has won it by three times. Prior to that, his father had won by 2009 and 1970. In 1967, the first election held after the formation of Haryana State, the winner was Om Prakash Chautala’s younger brother, Pratap Chautala. In 1968, OP Chautala made his debut but narrowly lost, an election he challenged in the Supreme Court which declared it void.

In the next ballot held in 1970 he won, then again in 1972. From 1977 to 2009 the seat was reserved for SCs and the Chautala family had to stay away from the constituency, but with the exception of 1991, it was still the candidate supported by Chautalas who won Elenabad. This is how tight the family’s grip on the constituency has been since the formation of Haryana 55 years ago.

Second, this is one of the more rural constituencies where the BJP is said to be the weakest because it is a party whose vote bank is predominantly urban and sits along the prosperous Grand Trunk Road belt. The only exception to this rule is the party’s large Yadav vote bank in southern Haryana in both rural and urban areas.

Third, it is a constituency dominated by voters from the Jat community. This is a big reason why he has remained in such a grip on Chautalas for decades.

Fourth, the by-election was held on the issue of agitation among farmers after Abhay resigned his seat earlier this year to register his protest against the three farm laws passed by the Center last year. Samyukt Kisan Morcha leaders like Rakesh Tikait (who almost asked people to vote for Abhay) and Gurnam Singh Chaduni staged various rallies against the BJP candidate.

Fifth, BJP candidate Pawan Beniwal left the party ahead of the elections to join Congress, believing the party to be unlikely due to the agricultural protests. The BJP had to lend a foreigner Gobind Kanda, brother of corrupt MP Sirsa Gopal Kanda, accused in suicide cases of Geetika Sharma and her mother.

So how did the BJP come so close to defeating Abhay Chautala in his own citadel and cut the margin of victory from over 12,000 odd votes in 2019 to just over 6,500 odd votes this time around? ?

First, many believed that Beniwal leaving the BJP for Congress would reduce the chances of the defeated party even more and he might even come third. However, the thing to watch out for was whether or not his non-Jat coalition was still intact. Now the party that gets over 12,000 more votes compared to 2019 has proven it without a doubt. In fact, he had so far presented a Jat candidate. This time around, giving the ticket to a non-Jat seems to have attracted more of its main voters to come and vote.

Second, the Congress Party lost around 15,000 votes from last time, while the INLD won just under 8,000 odd votes and the BJP-JJP combined got just over 14,000 more votes. .

Analysis of the stand-level votes shows that in 12 Sikh-majority villages in the constituency, Abhay Chautala won over 3,200 votes. Congress went from first to third in these areas. Congress replaced its former candidate Bharat Beniwal and aligned Pawan Beniwal.

Although both are of the same gotra, the former seems to have more control over Beniwal khap the voters and him with Bhupinder Hooda, who only made a few token rallies in the poll and called BJP candidate Gobind Kanda a friend (his brother was Minister of State for the Interior in Hooda’s government), are accused of having moved some voters from Jat to the BJP to put in place the president of the state Congress, Kumari Selja. She was in charge of the poll and allegedly gave the ticket to Pawan Beniwal against Hooda’s will.

Third, the BJP has performed relatively well, especially in villages where the BJP candidate has been fiercely boycotted by farmers. In the village of Dhookara where farmers from various villages organized a panchayat in boycotting the BJP in the elections, the party was only seven votes behind. In the village of Malekan, where Haryana Sports Minister and former Olympic hockey athlete Sandeep Singh was not allowed to enter, the BJP dragged only 239 votes.

This reinforces the perception that there is a huge gap in noise and signal and loud vocal protests do not have much traction beyond the Sikh Jat-Jat communities and the confrontational approach taken by agricultural leaders against BJP politicians led to counter the consolidation of other castes in party favor. This would certainly give the BJP the confidence to start returning to more and more constituencies and attending programs from other castes. If farmers clash, polarization would occur and benefit BJP.

Fourth, the electoral power of the Kanda brothers in the region has once again manifested itself. Despite their criminal past, they seem to take advantage of a strange pull on people. It is relevant to note that the BJP had been reluctant to take Gopal Kanda into the post-election alliance after outrage on social and mainstream media due to which it had to ally with Dushyant Chautala’s JJP. to provide stable government. Gopal Kanda, initially an ally of Chautalas, was also instrumental in forming the second Hooda government when it failed to come of age in 2009. He won Sirsa in 2019. Now his brother has nearly beaten the ‘INLD in their own backyard. The BJP will certainly seek to consolidate its partnership with the Kandas to strengthen its position in this so-called Bagad area.

But what does the result of this secondary vote mean for agricultural unrest? What lessons should leaders learn from this?

First, they need to come down from Cloud 9 and understand the reality on the ground how these agricultural protests have limited appeal beyond Jats and Jat Sikhs. They may think it will hurt BJP on the electoral front. On the contrary, these can lead to a counter-consolidation of other castes in favor of the BJP. So the wise thing to do here would be to liquidate it as soon as possible after a deal with the government that saves face on both sides.

Second, the confrontational approach must be stopped by immediately protesting against the farmers. It is shameful how some farming groups have prevented BJP-JJP leaders from entering and humiliating villages. It is one thing to record your protest, but not allowing leaders to make their point or to meet voters who have no problem with them is not done.

Farm leaders even made efforts to prevent ministers from attending private functions, non-political events and even prevented them from attending condolence meetings after the funeral. If the immorality of all of this doesn’t make them understand, at least the Elenabad result should wake them up. Their theaters only help the BJP.

Source link

About Kristopher Harris

Check Also

November 23 updates: US to release 50 million barrels of oil from reserves, thousands of British sign up for Covid recall, Apple sues Israeli spyware group NSO

About 90 percent of U.S. federal employees have been fully vaccinated against Covid-19 by the …

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *