AMMK, NTK and MNM can act as a damage factor for both AIADMK and DMK. The investigation predicts that DMK and its allies could collectively obtain 167 seats and more, while AIADMK and its partners could obtain 51 seats and more. In 14 ridings it would be a close fight.
Speaking to reporters in Tiruchy on Wednesday, Father Gaspar said that around two years have passed since the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the anti-outgoing wave has continued to prevail in Tamil Nadu and it is also expected to appear in the Assembly polls. Shortly after Edappadi K Palaniswami took office as Chief Minister, the public expected little from him. But he managed to exceed people’s expectations. Still, more than 55% are unhappy with Palaniswami’s performance as chief minister, he said.
While the survey recorded a net loss of 7% of votes for AIADMK compared to the votes polled in 2016, the drop is attributed to TTV Dhinakaran’s AMMK separatist faction, which had reduced around 4% of votes. traditional AIADMK votes. In addition, young people under 25 opted for Kamal Haasan’s MNM and Seeman’s NTK. At the same time, DMK and his allies could get 10% of the vote in this ballot, he said.
About 16 constituencies in the northwest region, where the Vanniyar and Kongu Vellalar communities have a strong presence, could vote in favor of the AIADMK alliance, Father Gaspar said. The internal quota reservation for the Vanniyar community had made a positive arithmetic in the region for the ruling alliance. However, this internal reserve has captured an inverse consolidation of all other communities in other places and among denotified communities in the South.
Meanwhile, the survey predicted a sharp sweep for the DMK alliance in the Delta region, with the exception of two or three constituencies. The Delta districts have always remained a stronghold of the DMK and this time the factor Sasikala wiped out the AIADMK alliance in the region, he said.
The third place race takes place between NTK, MNM and AMMK. While NTK enjoys remarkable support from voters under 25 across the state, MNM has a good base of urban and middle class voters. However, it is not prevalent statewide.