The S&P 500 hasn’t wobbled much even though credit markets have – risk sentiment in equities continues even in the face of a rising dollar (which was sold off). The defensive bias of S&P 500 earnings is evident as technology outperformed value – and even energy stocks took a hit. This is a short-term concern for Oil bulls, but it would be premature to close out profitable longs just yet (although short-term challenges would remain).
Precious metals are acting weak – the daily rise in yields and the dollar are hurting. The second half of the year would be the best time for gold and silver as the focus shifts from inflation (temporarily peaking) to the inevitable pulling back on the tightening (even becoming dovish again) – until then, I’m looking for lean weeks ahead, and that goes for copper as well. Crude Oil remains supported by geopolitics, the CRB index continues to trend higher and the threat of recession does not break them. move forward in the medium term more and more.
Let’s go straight to the graphics.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook
It still looks like a consolidation – I want the rally to continue and the value to pick up some strength. Microrotation was all we saw yesterday.
HYG didn’t back down for good – this rally still went on. Treasury yields have indeed peaked as I expected – bond market reprieve would facilitate stock market gains before the reality of the downturn sets in.
Gold, silver and miners
Precious metals have fallen asleep again and their medium-term outlook is on “pause” as better days are months away. The key factors are bond yields and market pressure on the Fed – neither is strongly in favor of the metals at the moment.
Crude oil hasn’t necessarily reversed, but I would be cautious this week at least. In the medium term, I do not see a peak as already.
Copper is at a short-term crossroads but is not ready to drop too sharply (too fast). As with precious metals, he’s waiting for the Fed to approach a turn – and that’s unlikely to happen too soon.
Bitcoin and Ethereum
Two days of crypto caution will not affect the recovery in my view. By Friday, we would see higher prices for both Bitcoin and Ethereum than is currently the case.
The S&P 500 is poised to continue improving market breadth, and bonds wouldn’t stand in the way – risk sentiment still has a lot to do, both over time and in stock prices. Real assets would continue to be relatively resilient, and the reprieve in yields, helping to contain the dollar, would offset the temporary spike in inflation. Temporary indeed as inflation would remain stubbornly high and persistent – the Fed is unlikely to break it (it would take more than a brief, sharp recession). This is why it is not advisable, in the medium and long term, to leave many real estate assets even when the short-term winds are blowing.