World News | The enigma of the autocratic succession of Turkish President Erdogan

By Jean Solomou

Nicosia [Cyprus] November 15 (ANI): Rumors about the declining health of autocratic Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have been circulating for several years both inside and outside Turkey.

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In recent weeks, however, those rumors have grown exponentially following an article written in Foreign Policy by Steven A. Cook, a prominent expert on Turkey, who claimed that President Erdogan may be too sick to be sick. stand for re-election in June 2023.

For despotic rulers like Erdogan, their health is a state secret, and every effort is made to keep it a secret. However, there appears to be a consensus that Erdogan has an unnamed health problem.

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Whether these rumors are correct or not, what will happen in Turkish politics if Erdogan for one reason or another steps down remains a puzzle to many people and governments around the world.

In two cases, Erdogan appeared in some videos only to be able to walk with the help of his wife and help and stammering his words on a live broadcast of holiday wishes to his party.

It should be noted, however, that in other videos he looked perfectly fine.

After Erdogan canceled his visit to Glasgow for the Climate Change Conference and canceled all of his meetings for two days, including the anniversary of his AKP party’s rise to power, in the late hours of November 2 and the November 3, social media platforms in Turkey were filled with rumors of Erdogan’s death.

The hashtag #olmus [meaning died] Twitter spread like wildfire, as Erdogan’s supporters vehemently denied their leader’s alleged death with the #CokYasaReis [Live Long Chief].

The next day, Turkish police announced they would investigate 30 people who shared “manipulative” messages under the Twitter hashtag #olmus.

Whether Erdogan is ill or not, the fact remains that he is 67 years old and 18 years in power have taken their toll. Someone will have to replace him sooner or later. As there is no heir and current Vice President Fuat Octay is generally not seen as a serious candidate to replace him as head of Turkey, there is a lot of speculation in the country and in many world capitals as to who will replace the Turkish president.

Political analysts say Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) will likely split after his death, with some top leaders leaving to form their own political parties.

Former Foreign Minister and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and former Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan, both of whom enjoyed considerable prestige at home and abroad, have parted ways with AKP to form their own parties, but it is uncertain whether they will be able to cross the 10 percent threshold to enter parliament.

Influential figures in the Turkish government who are generally seen as likely candidates to replace Erdogan are National Defense Minister Hulusi Akar and Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu.

The more likely of the two is Hulusi Akar, who has military backing, while Suleyman Soylu’s chances were significantly reduced after Sedat Peker, a Turkish mafia boss and whistleblower, in a series of videos made serious allegations about Soylu’s involvement in a host of criminal activities.

Now, coming to the opposition parties, they must soon find a candidate who can beat Erdogan – who has announced he will run in the June 2023 election (if rumors about his health prove to be wrong).

National Alliance leaders Kemal Kilicdaroglu of the center-left Republican People’s Party (CHP) and Meral Aksener of the center-right Good Party (IYI) as well as the smaller Alliance parties have yet to decide. who will be their common candidate. will be.

The only certainty, Meral Aksener announced that she was only interested in the post of Prime Minister, not president.

She wants the president to be elected to try to do everything to change the presidential system set up by Erdogan and make it a parliamentary system, with a prime minister.

It is recalled that the constitutional referendum of April 2017, approved with 51% to 49% in advance, abolished the office of Prime Minister and the existing parliamentary system of government was replaced by an executive presidency and a presidential system.

The success of the Alliance Nation in the next elections depends not only on the search for an eligible candidate but also on the conquest of Kurdish votes.

As Turkish journalist Murat Yetkin puts it: “But there is a hidden variable. Kurdish voters, voting for the People’s Democratic Party (HDP) or other parties. If the HDP nominates a candidate separately from Nation Alliance, it will be a gift for Erdogan and the AKP-MHP government on a silver platter. Therefore, it is essential for the National Alliance not to offend Kurdish voters and not to underestimate their influence.

Finally, the strong candidates in the next presidential elections could be the mayor of Istanbul Ekrem Imamoglu and the mayor of Ankara Mansur Yavas. Ekrem Imamoglu, twice defeated a former AKP prime minister and became mayor of Istanbul, while his Ankara counterpart Mansur Yavas currently holds the highest approval rating of any Turkish politician with 61%.

Iain MacGillvray, a researcher specializing in Turkey, wrote in a Strategist article: “The opposition has grown in popularity and is personified by benevolent and responsible political leaders such as the mayor of Istanbul Ekrem Imamoglu and the mayor of Ankara Mansur Yavas. the opposition contests the final consolidation of authoritarianism by the AKP and its acolytes. The regime appears tired, unable to muster the will to tackle the economic ills facing the country. Its foreign policy adventurism and aggressive postures make it less like a rising power regime and more like a strategically leadershipless elite, employing desperate measures to regain national popularity. (ANI)

(This is an unedited and auto-generated story from the syndicated news feed, the staff at LatestLY may not have edited or edited the body of the content)

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